How falling crude oil prices could boost the crypto market

The crypto market remained on edge on Thursday as some investors booked profits following the recent double-digit gains.

Bitcoin (BTC) price was trading at $102,700, while Ethereum (ETH) fell from this week’s high of $2,700 to $2,500. Other top altcoins like Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Shiba Inu (SHIB) fell by over 4%.

How falling crude oil prices may boost the crypto market

A potential catalyst for Bitcoin and other altcoins is the ongoing crash in crude oil prices. Brent, the international benchmark, fell for the second consecutive day, reaching a low of $63. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate declined to $60.20, its lowest level since May 9. Both benchmarks have fallen more than 25% from their highest levels this year.

Prices dropped as Donald Trump hinted that his administration was making progress in indirect talks with Iran. A potential agreement would see Iran halt its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. A likely outcome would be Iran increasing oil exports at a time when global supplies are already rising. At its last meeting, the OPEC+ cartel voted to increase production for the second consecutive month.

Falling crude oil prices could support the crypto market by lowering gasoline costs, which would reduce inflation. In a post on Wednesday, the White House noted that gasoline prices had declined for three consecutive months.

Lower inflation would, in turn, give the Federal Reserve room to start cutting interest rates—an outcome that would benefit cryptocurrencies and other risk-on assets. For example, Bitcoin and most altcoins surged in 2020 and 2021 as the Fed aggressively slashed rates.

Economic data released this week showed that US inflation ticked lower in April. The headline Consumer Price Index dropped from 2.4% in March to 2.3%, while the core inflation remained at 2.8%.

Trade truce to boost crypto and stocks

The other macro catalyst for the crypto market is the recent trade truce between the US and China. This truce has led the two countries to lower their tariffs dramatically. The US lowered its levies from 145% to 30%, while China brought its levies from 125% to 10%. 

The U.K. also reached a trade agreement with the U.S. last week and is negotiating similar deals with other countries, including the European Union.

As a result, analysts now believe that trade and recession risks have subsided. In a note on Wednesday, Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin lowered his recession odds and boosted his S&P 500 forecast to $6,100 from $5,100. 

A strong stock market would also benefit cryptocurrencies due to the positive correlation that often exists between the two asset classes.